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Locarno - Chiasso (1 - 1):
2011/2012
Vital Stats and Trends Summary:
› Trends favouring homewin (Locarno) (Trends: 1 Stars: 1)
› Trends favouring awaywin (Chiasso) (Trends: 1 Stars: 1)
› Trends favouring draw (Trends: 11 Stars: 19)
› Trends favouring over (Trends: 19 Stars: 26)
› Trends favouring under (Trends: 6 Stars: 7)
› Locarno home:
3-3-2
12-12
› Locarno form:
3-2-1
7-6
› Home form:
3-2-1
11-8
› Chiasso away:
2-4-2
7-7
› Chiasso form:
2-2-2
4-4
› Away form:
2-2-2
5-5
Team Status:
We compare a team's form to their natural cyclus over their last 30 games.
Overall
› Locarno: Uptrend
Form: 3-2-1
(11 points, 1.83 avg)
Last 30 matches: 11-8-11
(41 points, 1.37 avg)
› Chiasso: Neutral
Form: 2-2-2
(8 points, 1.33 avg)
Last 30 matches: 10-8-12
(38 points, 1.27 avg)
Home/Away
› Locarno: Neutral
Home form: 3-2-1
(11 points, 1.83 avg)
Last 15 homematches: 7-5-3
(26 points, 1.73 avg)
› Chiasso: Uptrend
Away form: 2-2-2
(8 points, 1.33 avg)
Last 15 awaymatches: 3-6-6
(15 points, 1.00 avg)
Table:
| Home | Away | All | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | Goals | Matches | Goals | Matches | Goals | |||||||||||||||||
| All | W | D | L | For | Aga | Pts | All | W | D | L | For | Aga | Pts | All | W | D | L | For | Aga | Pts | ||
| 1 | St Gallen | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 15 | 36 |
| 2 | Bellinzona | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Aarau | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Chiasso | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Lugano | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Wil 1900 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 22 | 23 |
| 7 | Biel Bienne | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 30 | 23 |
| 8 | Vaduz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 30 | 20 |
| 9 | Locarno | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 20 |
| 10 | Winterthur | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 19 |
| 11 | Nyonnais | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 19 |
| 12 | Wohlen | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 13 | Carouge | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 17 |
| 14 | Delemont | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 16 |
| 15 | Kriens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 28 | 15 |
| 16 | Brühl | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 5 |
Simulator:
The simulator uses vital stats, trends, history, systems, form and other data to give a strength factor between the teams. Value odds is indicated after the estimation.
› Homewin: 35% (value odds 2.83)
› Awaywin: 32% (value odds 3.16)
› Draw: 33% (value odds 3.03)
› Over: 53% (value odds 1.88)
› Under: 47% (value odds 2.14)
Expected Score:
› Locarno: 1.05
› Chiasso: 1.01
› Total: 2.06
› Over: 41%
› Under: 59%
Team Trends:
When a team has been into action we track how they have done in tens of different situations. If a trend emerge and the team is facing such a situation, we present it to you. The more significant the trend is, the more stars we add.
Trends favouring homewin (Locarno) (Trends: 1 Stars: 1)
| › Locarno playing against offensively poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. | [won | 4/ | 6] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
Trends favouring awaywin (Chiasso) (Trends: 1 Stars: 1)
| › Locarno playing against defensively good awayteams the last 3 seasons. | [lost | 6/ | 9] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
Trends favouring draw (Trends: 11 Stars: 19)
| › Locarno playing against good teams the current season. | [draw | 3/ | 7] | [42.86%] | [2*] |
| › Locarno playing against average awayteams the last 3 seasons. | [draw | 7/ | 18] | [38.89%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against awayteams with average elo rating the current season. | [draw | 3/ | 8] | [37.50%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing in weekend the current season. | [draw | 5/ | 14] | [35.71%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing in weekend at home the current season. | [draw | 3/ | 8] | [37.50%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against offensively average teams the last 3 seasons. | [draw | 7/ | 17] | [41.18%] | [2*] |
| › Chiasso playing against hometeams with average elo rating the current season. | [draw | 4/ | 8] | [50.00%] | [3*] |
| › Chiasso playing in weekend the current season. | [draw | 5/ | 14] | [35.71%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso playing in weekend at away the current season. | [draw | 4/ | 7] | [57.14%] | [3*] |
| › Chiasso playing against offensively average teams the last 3 seasons. | [draw | 8/ | 21] | [38.10%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso playing against offensively average hometeams the last 3 seasons. | [draw | 5/ | 11] | [45.45%] | [3*] |
Trends favouring over (Trends: 19 Stars: 26)
| › Locarno playing against teams with average form the last 6 matches the current season. | [over | 7/ | 10] | [70.00%] | [2*] |
| › Locarno playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. | [over | 10/ | 15] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against awayteams with average elo rating the current season. | [over | 6/ | 8] | [75.00%] | [2*] |
| › Locarno playing against teams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. | [over | 46/ | 73] | [63.01%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against awayteams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. | [over | 23/ | 37] | [62.16%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing in weekend the current season. | [over | 9/ | 14] | [64.29%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing in weekend at home the current season. | [over | 6/ | 8] | [75.00%] | [2*] |
| › Locarno playing in weekend the last 3 seasons. | [over | 41/ | 64] | [64.06%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing in weekend at home the last 3 seasons. | [over | 24/ | 36] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against good teams the last 3 seasons. | [over | 20/ | 31] | [64.52%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against average awayteams the last 3 seasons. | [over | 11/ | 18] | [61.11%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against defensively good teams the last 3 seasons. | [over | 7/ | 10] | [70.00%] | [2*] |
| › Locarno playing against defensively good awayteams the last 3 seasons. | [over | 6/ | 9] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing against offensively poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. | [over | 4/ | 6] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno playing 2 homematches in a row the last 3 seasons. | [over | 6/ | 10] | [60.00%] | [1*] |
| › Locarno after drawing in their last homematch the last 3 seasons. | [over | 8/ | 9] | [88.89%] | [3*] |
| › Chiasso playing against defensively poor teams the current season. | [over | 5/ | 7] | [71.43%] | [2*] |
| › Chiasso playing against average teams the last 3 seasons. | [over | 16/ | 26] | [61.54%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso after losing in their last awaymatch the last 3 seasons. | [over | 6/ | 9] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
Trends favouring under (Trends: 6 Stars: 7)
| › Chiasso playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. | [under | 9/ | 15] | [60.00%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso playing against hometeams with average elo rating the current season. | [under | 5/ | 8] | [62.50%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso playing in weekend the current season. | [under | 9/ | 14] | [64.29%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso playing in weekend at away the current season. | [under | 5/ | 7] | [71.43%] | [2*] |
| › Chiasso playing against offensively average teams the last 3 seasons. | [under | 14/ | 21] | [66.67%] | [1*] |
| › Chiasso playing against offensively average hometeams the last 3 seasons. | [under | 7/ | 11] | [63.64%] | [1*] |
ELO Ratings:
The rating was originally developed by Arpad Elo for rating chess players. The basic idea is that you should be rated by how you do versus the strength of your opponent. A poor team winning against a strong team will recieve a better rating than if the strong team won against a poor team. Each team start with 1500 in rating at the start of each season.
Locarno
› ELO Rating 10 matches ago: 1439.3
› ELO Rating 6 matches ago: 1418.9
› ELO Rating 3 matches ago: 1434.8
› Current ELO Rating: 1438.4
Chiasso
› ELO Rating 10 matches ago: 1554.0
› ELO Rating 6 matches ago: 1536.6
› ELO Rating 3 matches ago: 1517.0
› Current ELO Rating: 1505.6
| Match | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locarno | 1485.0 | 1479.6 | 1459.5 | 1443.6 | 1458.5 | 1439.3 | 1432.7 | 1442.4 | 1439.5 | 1418.9 | 1429.0 | 1435.7 | 1434.8 | 1444.8 | 1438.4 |
| Chiasso | 1500.0 | 1510.0 | 1509.7 | 1525.3 | 1540.0 | 1554.0 | 1535.9 | 1532.4 | 1541.7 | 1536.6 | 1513.3 | 1523.4 | 1517.0 | 1496.9 | 1505.6 |
Power Ratings:
A rating system based not only on results, but also how they are achieved. It is based on the ELO Rating system, but teams are also rewarded for scoring or conceeding goals.
Locarno
› Power Rating 10 matches ago: 9.78
› Power Rating 6 matches ago: 9.75
› Power Rating 3 matches ago: 9.80
› Current Power Rating: 9.83
Chiasso
› Power Rating 10 matches ago: 10.20
› Power Rating 6 matches ago: 10.20
› Power Rating 3 matches ago: 10.20
› Current Power Rating: 10.20
| Match | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locarno | 9.93 | 9.93 | 9.85 | 9.83 | 9.90 | 9.78 | 9.78 | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.75 | 9.78 | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Chiasso | 10.00 | 10.03 | 10.03 | 10.10 | 10.12 | 10.20 | 10.17 | 10.17 | 10.20 | 10.20 | 10.17 | 10.20 | 10.20 | 10.17 | 10.20 |
Systems:
Easy systems based on performances like winning matches and scoring goals. The systems have proven value with years of testing. Look for corresponding systems forecasting same results. Estimated results are shown.
› Point Ratio System: 0.25 (indicates awaywin)› Game Form System: 1 (indicates draw)
› Weighted Form System: 4 (indicates draw)
› Goal Superiority System: -6 (indicates awaywin) (last 10)
› Goal Superiority System: 1 (indicates draw) (last 6)
› Scoring Ability System: 3 (indicates draw) (last 10)
› Scoring Ability System: 3 (indicates draw) (last 6)
› Percentage Win System: 31% (homewin) 44% (draw) 25% (awaywin)
› Defensor System: 0.33 (indicates awaywin)
Stats for hometeam (Locarno):
Table: (games played, won-drawn-lost, scored-conceeded, points)
› Overall: 15 5-5-5 19-26 20
› At home: 8 3-3-2 12-12 12
Total Goal Score: (over, under)
› Overall: 10-5
› At home: 6-2
Scoring:
› Overall: scoring 1.27 goals per match
› At home: scoring 1.50 goals per match
Conceding:
› Overall: allowing 1.73 goals per match
› At home: allowing 1.50 goals per match
Form:
› Overall:
LWWDWD
3-2-1
› Home:
WDWLWD
3-2-1
ELO Rating: 1438.4
Last 10 Matches Overall:
| Dec 04 2011 | home | Aarau | 1-1 | draw | under |
| Nov 20 2011 | away | Wil 1900 | 2-1 | won | over |
| Nov 13 2011 | away | Winterthur | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Nov 06 2011 | home | Brühl | 2-1 | won | over |
| Oct 30 2011 | away | Chiasso | 1-0 | won | under |
| Oct 22 2011 | home | Kriens | 1-3 | lost | over |
| Oct 01 2011 | away | Biel Bienne | 1-1 | draw | under |
| Sep 24 2011 | home | Vaduz | 2-1 | won | over |
| Sep 10 2011 | home | Nyonnais | 2-2 | draw | over |
| Aug 27 2011 | away | St Gallen | 0-5 | lost | over |
Summary: 4-4-2 O-U: 6-4 Avg. score: 2.70 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 12-15
Last 10 Matches At Home:
| Dec 04 2011 | home | Aarau | 1-1 | draw | under |
| Nov 06 2011 | home | Brühl | 2-1 | won | over |
| Oct 22 2011 | home | Kriens | 1-3 | lost | over |
| Sep 24 2011 | home | Vaduz | 2-1 | won | over |
| Sep 10 2011 | home | Nyonnais | 2-2 | draw | over |
| Aug 20 2011 | home | Carouge | 3-0 | won | over |
| Aug 06 2011 | home | Bellinzona | 0-3 | lost | over |
| Jul 30 2011 | home | Lugano | 1-1 | draw | under |
| May 21 2011 | home | Delemont | 3-2 | won | over |
| May 15 2011 | home | Servette | 3-2 | won | over |
Summary: 5-3-2 O-U: 8-2 Avg. score: 3.40 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 18-16
Stats for awayteam (Chiasso):
Table: (games played, won-drawn-lost, scored-conceeded, points)
› Overall: 15 7-5-3 18-10 26
› At away: 8 2-4-2 7-7 10
Total Goal Score: (over, under)
› Overall: 6-9
› At away: 3-5
Scoring:
› Overall: scoring 1.20 goals per match
› At away: scoring 0.88 goals per match
Conceding:
› Overall: allowing 0.67 goals per match
› At away: allowing 0.88 goals per match
Form:
› Overall:
DLWDLW
2-2-2
› Away:
WLDDWL
2-2-2
ELO Rating: 1505.6
Last 10 Matches Overall:
| Dec 04 2011 | home | Bellinzona | 1-0 | won | under |
| Nov 26 2011 | away | Carouge | 1-2 | lost | over |
| Nov 20 2011 | home | Lugano | 1-1 | draw | under |
| Nov 05 2011 | away | St Gallen | 1-0 | won | under |
| Oct 30 2011 | home | Locarno | 0-1 | lost | under |
| Oct 23 2011 | away | Winterthur | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Oct 01 2011 | home | Nyonnais | 1-0 | won | under |
| Sep 25 2011 | away | Delemont | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Sep 12 2011 | away | Biel Bienne | 1-2 | lost | over |
| Aug 26 2011 | home | Vaduz | 3-0 | won | over |
Summary: 4-3-3 O-U: 3-7 Avg. score: 1.50 Median score: 1.00 Goals: 9-6
Last 10 Matches Away:
| Nov 26 2011 | away | Carouge | 1-2 | lost | over |
| Nov 05 2011 | away | St Gallen | 1-0 | won | under |
| Oct 23 2011 | away | Winterthur | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Sep 25 2011 | away | Delemont | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Sep 12 2011 | away | Biel Bienne | 1-2 | lost | over |
| Aug 20 2011 | away | Aarau | 2-1 | won | over |
| Aug 06 2011 | away | Wohlen | 1-1 | draw | under |
| Jul 23 2011 | away | Wil 1900 | 1-1 | draw | under |
| May 21 2011 | away | Servette | 0-3 | lost | over |
| May 12 2011 | away | Delemont | 0-3 | lost | over |
Summary: 2-4-4 O-U: 5-5 Avg. score: 2.00 Median score: 2.00 Goals: 7-13
History:
Overall History
| Oct 01 2005 | Locarno - Chiasso | 0-1 | awaywin | under |
| Apr 20 2006 | Chiasso - Locarno | 1-0 | homewin | under |
| Oct 14 2006 | Locarno - Chiasso | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Apr 22 2007 | Chiasso - Locarno | 3-1 | homewin | over |
| Dec 02 2007 | Locarno - Chiasso | 1-5 | awaywin | over |
| Feb 17 2008 | Chiasso - Locarno | 2-1 | homewin | over |
| Aug 06 2010 | Locarno - Chiasso | 0-1 | awaywin | under |
| Apr 01 2011 | Chiasso - Locarno | 1-2 | awaywin | over |
| Oct 30 2011 | Chiasso - Locarno | 0-1 | awaywin | under |
Summary (overall): 3-1-5 O-U: 4-5 Avg. score: 2.22 Median score: 1.00
Summary (3 years): 0-0-3 O-U: 1-2 Avg. score: 1.67 Median score: 1.00
Trend: Chiasso is 6-1-2
Trend 3 years: Locarno is 2-0-1
Home - Away History
| Oct 01 2005 | Locarno - Chiasso | 0-1 | awaywin | under |
| Oct 14 2006 | Locarno - Chiasso | 0-0 | draw | under |
| Dec 02 2007 | Locarno - Chiasso | 1-5 | awaywin | over |
| Aug 06 2010 | Locarno - Chiasso | 0-1 | awaywin | under |
Summary (overall): 0-1-3 O-U: 1-3 Avg. score: 2.00 Median score: 1.00
Summary (3 years): 0-0-1 O-U: 0-1 Avg. score: 1.00 Median score: 1.00
Trend: Chiasso is 3-1-0
Trend 3 years: Chiasso is 1-0-0