Index : Gorica vs Nafta

Consensus:

Summary of current votes

› Users favouring homewin: 0     › Users favouring over 2.5: 0
› Users favouring awaywin: 0     › Users favouring under 2.5: 0
› Users favouring draw: 0

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Favouring result:
Homewin Awaywin Draw 		       Favouring over/under:
Over 2.5 Under 2.5
 

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Gorica - Nafta (3 - 1):

Prva Liga (Slovenia)
2009/2010

Vital Stats and Trends Summary:

› Trends favouring homewin (Gorica) (Trends: 5 Stars: 7)
› Trends favouring awaywin (Nafta) (Trends: 3 Stars: 3)
› Trends favouring draw (Trends: 9 Stars: 12)
› Trends favouring over (Trends: 14 Stars: 23)
› Trends favouring under (Trends: 5 Stars: 7)

› Gorica home: 1-2-5 12-17
› Gorica form: 1-5-0 9-8
› Home form: 1-2-3 10-13

› Nafta away: 1-2-5 8-16
› Nafta form: 2-3-1 10-10
› Away form: 1-2-3 7-11

Team Status:

We compare a team's form to their natural cyclus over their last 30 games.

Overall

› Gorica: Neutral
Form: 1-5-0 (8 points, 1.33 avg)
Last 30 matches: 11-7-12 (40 points, 1.33 avg)

› Nafta: Uptrend
Form: 2-3-1 (9 points, 1.50 avg)
Last 30 matches: 6-7-17 (25 points, 0.83 avg)

Home/Away

› Gorica: Downtrend
Home form: 1-2-3 (5 points, 0.83 avg)
Last 15 homematches: 5-3-7 (18 points, 1.20 avg)

› Nafta: Uptrend
Away form: 1-2-3 (5 points, 0.83 avg)
Last 15 awaymatches: 1-2-12 (5 points, 0.33 avg)

Table:

Home Away All
Matches Goals Matches Goals Matches Goals
AllWDLForAgaPts AllWDLForAgaPts AllWDLForAgaPts
1 Koper 8 4 3 1 12 9 15 8 6 2 0 13 6 20 16 10 5 1 25 15 35
2 Rudar Velenje 8 5 1 2 13 10 16 8 4 1 3 14 11 13 16 9 2 5 27 21 29
3 Olimpija Ljubljana 8 3 1 4 11 10 10 8 5 0 3 12 6 15 16 8 1 7 23 16 25
4 Maribor 8 2 2 4 11 13 8 8 5 0 3 16 11 15 16 7 2 7 27 24 23
5 Publikum Celje 8 4 1 3 12 12 13 8 2 3 3 11 14 9 16 6 4 6 23 26 22
6 Domzale 8 3 2 3 11 13 11 8 2 3 3 11 15 9 16 5 5 6 22 28 20
7 Nafta 8 4 2 2 17 13 14 8 1 2 5 8 16 5 16 5 4 7 25 29 19
8 Interblock 8 3 2 3 9 8 11 8 2 1 5 11 14 7 16 5 3 8 20 22 18
9 Drava 8 2 2 4 7 12 8 8 2 3 3 11 11 9 16 4 5 7 18 23 17
10 Gorica 8 1 2 5 12 17 5 8 2 3 3 10 11 9 16 3 5 8 22 28 14

Simulator:

The simulator uses vital stats, trends, history, systems, form and other data to give a strength factor between the teams. Value odds is indicated after the estimation.

› Homewin: 41% (value odds 2.43)

› Awaywin: 29% (value odds 3.48)

› Draw: 30% (value odds 3.32)

› Over: 70% (value odds 1.44)

› Under: 30% (value odds 3.29)

Expected Score:

› Gorica: 1.67

› Nafta: 1.53

› Total: 3.20


› Over: 64%

› Under: 36%

Team Trends:

When a team has been into action we track how they have done in tens of different situations. If a trend emerge and the team is facing such a situation, we present it to you. The more significant the trend is, the more stars we add.

Trends favouring homewin (Gorica) (Trends: 5 Stars: 7)

› Gorica playing against poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. [won 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Nafta playing against hometeams with average elo rating the current season. [lost 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against hometeams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. [lost 27/ 42] [64.29%] [1*]
› Nafta playing in weekend at away the current season. [lost 5/ 7] [71.43%] [2*]
› Nafta playing against offensively average hometeams the last 3 seasons. [lost 11/ 17] [64.71%] [1*]

Trends favouring awaywin (Nafta) (Trends: 3 Stars: 3)

› Gorica playing against offensively good teams the current season. [lost 6/ 10] [60.00%] [1*]
› Gorica playing against teams with average form the last 6 matches the current season. [lost 6/ 10] [60.00%] [1*]
› Gorica playing against awayteams with average elo rating the current season. [lost 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]

Trends favouring draw (Trends: 9 Stars: 12)

› Gorica playing against defensively poor teams the last 3 seasons. [draw 6/ 17] [35.29%] [1*]
› Gorica playing against defensively poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. [draw 9/ 19] [47.37%] [3*]
› Gorica playing against offensively average awayteams the last 3 seasons. [draw 7/ 20] [35.00%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against poor hometeams the last 3 seasons. [draw 5/ 13] [38.46%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against defensively poor teams the last 3 seasons. [draw 6/ 17] [35.29%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against offensively average teams the last 3 seasons. [draw 11/ 29] [37.93%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against offensively average hometeams the last 3 seasons. [draw 6/ 17] [35.29%] [1*]
› Nafta playing in November the last 3 seasons. [draw 3/ 7] [42.86%] [2*]
› Nafta after drawing in their last awaymatch the last 3 seasons. [draw 3/ 8] [37.50%] [1*]

Trends favouring over (Trends: 14 Stars: 23)

› Gorica playing against awayteams with average elo rating the current season. [over 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Gorica playing in weekend at home the current season. [over 5/ 7] [71.43%] [2*]
› Gorica playing against poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. [over 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]
› Gorica after winning in their last homematch the last 3 seasons. [over 8/ 10] [80.00%] [3*]
› Nafta playing against teams with average form the last 6 matches the current season. [over 7/ 10] [70.00%] [2*]
› Nafta playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. [over 11/ 16] [68.75%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against hometeams with average elo rating the current season. [over 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against hometeams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. [over 27/ 42] [64.29%] [1*]
› Nafta playing in weekend the current season. [over 10/ 14] [71.43%] [2*]
› Nafta playing in weekend at away the current season. [over 5/ 7] [71.43%] [2*]
› Nafta playing in weekend at away the last 3 seasons. [over 24/ 38] [63.16%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against defensively poor teams the last 3 seasons. [over 12/ 17] [70.59%] [2*]
› Nafta playing against defensively poor hometeams the last 3 seasons. [over 11/ 14] [78.57%] [2*]
› Nafta after drawing in their last awaymatch the last 3 seasons. [over 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]

Trends favouring under (Trends: 5 Stars: 7)

› Gorica playing in November the last 3 seasons. [under 5/ 7] [71.43%] [2*]
› Nafta playing against poor teams the last 3 seasons. [under 13/ 21] [61.90%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against poor hometeams the last 3 seasons. [under 8/ 13] [61.54%] [1*]
› Nafta playing against offensively average teams the last 3 seasons. [under 19/ 29] [65.52%] [1*]
› Nafta playing in November the last 3 seasons. [under 5/ 7] [71.43%] [2*]

ELO Ratings:

The rating was originally developed by Arpad Elo for rating chess players. The basic idea is that you should be rated by how you do versus the strength of your opponent. A poor team winning against a strong team will recieve a better rating than if the strong team won against a poor team. Each team start with 1500 in rating at the start of each season.

Gorica
› ELO Rating 10 matches ago: 1448.2
› ELO Rating 6 matches ago: 1382.3
› ELO Rating 3 matches ago: 1360.1

› Current ELO Rating: 1366.7

Nafta
› ELO Rating 10 matches ago: 1429.4
› ELO Rating 6 matches ago: 1427.8
› ELO Rating 3 matches ago: 1429.5

› Current ELO Rating: 1424.9

ELO Trend
Match 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Gorica 1515.0 1494.5 1520.7 1500.7 1485.2 1464.5 1448.2 1432.3 1408.8 1387.9 1382.3 1376.5 1368.3 1360.1 1358.6 1366.7
Nafta 1485.0 1480.8 1465.1 1481.3 1465.3 1445.5 1429.4 1439.5 1419.2 1429.1 1427.8 1408.0 1422.1 1429.5 1429.2 1424.9

Power Ratings:

A rating system based not only on results, but also how they are achieved. It is based on the ELO Rating system, but teams are also rewarded for scoring or conceeding goals.

Gorica
› Power Rating 10 matches ago: 9.92
› Power Rating 6 matches ago: 9.82
› Power Rating 3 matches ago: 9.82

› Current Power Rating: 9.85

Nafta
› Power Rating 10 matches ago: 9.85
› Power Rating 6 matches ago: 9.90
› Power Rating 3 matches ago: 9.90

› Current Power Rating: 9.90

Power Rating Trend
Match 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Gorica 10.03 10.00 10.07 10.05 10.00 9.97 9.92 9.90 9.85 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.85
Nafta 9.95 9.95 9.90 9.95 9.90 9.87 9.85 9.87 9.82 9.90 9.90 9.85 9.87 9.90 9.90 9.90

Systems:

Easy systems based on performances like winning matches and scoring goals. The systems have proven value with years of testing. Look for corresponding systems forecasting same results. Estimated results are shown.

› Point Ratio System: 0.00 (indicates awaywin)

› Game Form System: -3 (indicates awaywin)

› Weighted Form System: 1 (indicates draw)

› Goal Superiority System: -6 (indicates awaywin) (last 10)

› Goal Superiority System: 1 (indicates draw) (last 6)

› Scoring Ability System: -5 (indicates draw) (last 10)

› Scoring Ability System: -1 (indicates draw) (last 6)

› Percentage Win System: 38% (homewin) 25% (draw) 38% (awaywin)

› Defensor System: -0.33 (indicates homewin)

Stats for hometeam (Gorica):

Table: (games played, won-drawn-lost, scored-conceeded, points)
› Overall: 16 3-5-8 22-28 14
› At home: 8 1-2-5 12-17 5

Total Goal Score: (over, under)
› Overall: 9-7
› At home: 6-2

Scoring:
› Overall: scoring 1.38 goals per match
› At home: scoring 1.50 goals per match

Conceding:
› Overall: allowing 1.75 goals per match
› At home: allowing 2.13 goals per match

Form:
› Overall: DDDDDW 1-5-0
› Home: LLLDDW 1-2-3

ELO Rating: 1366.7

Last 10 Matches Overall:

Oct 31 2009 home Interblock 4-3 won over
Oct 28 2009 away Drava 1-1 draw under
Oct 24 2009 home Publikum Celje 1-1 draw under
Oct 17 2009 away Koper 1-1 draw under
Oct 03 2009 home Domzale 1-1 draw under
Sep 27 2009 away Olimpija Ljubljana 1-1 draw under
Sep 23 2009 home Maribor 2-3 lost over
Sep 19 2009 home Rudar Velenje 1-3 lost over
Sep 12 2009 away Nafta 1-2 lost over
Aug 29 2009 away Interblock 1-3 lost over

Summary: 1-5-4 O-U: 5-5 Avg. score: 3.30 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 14-19

Last 10 Matches At Home:

Oct 31 2009 home Interblock 4-3 won over
Oct 24 2009 home Publikum Celje 1-1 draw under
Oct 03 2009 home Domzale 1-1 draw under
Sep 23 2009 home Maribor 2-3 lost over
Sep 19 2009 home Rudar Velenje 1-3 lost over
Aug 22 2009 home Drava 1-2 lost over
Aug 08 2009 home Koper 1-2 lost over
Jul 26 2009 home Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 lost over
May 20 2009 home Maribor 3-0 won over
May 09 2009 home Nafta 2-1 won over

Summary: 3-2-5 O-U: 8-2 Avg. score: 3.50 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 17-18

Stats for awayteam (Nafta):

Table: (games played, won-drawn-lost, scored-conceeded, points)
› Overall: 16 5-4-7 25-29 19
› At away: 8 1-2-5 8-16 5

Total Goal Score: (over, under)
› Overall: 11-5
› At away: 5-3

Scoring:
› Overall: scoring 1.56 goals per match
› At away: scoring 1.00 goals per match

Conceding:
› Overall: allowing 1.81 goals per match
› At away: allowing 2.00 goals per match

Form:
› Overall: DLWWDD 2-3-1
› Away: LLLDWD 1-2-3

ELO Rating: 1424.9

Last 10 Matches Overall:

Oct 31 2009 home Domzale 2-2 draw over
Oct 28 2009 away Interblock 1-1 draw under
Oct 24 2009 home Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 won under
Oct 18 2009 away Drava 2-1 won over
Oct 03 2009 home Maribor 2-4 lost over
Sep 26 2009 away Publikum Celje 2-2 draw over
Sep 23 2009 home Rudar Velenje 5-2 won over
Sep 19 2009 away Koper 1-3 lost over
Sep 12 2009 home Gorica 2-1 won over
Aug 28 2009 away Domzale 1-2 lost over

Summary: 4-3-3 O-U: 8-2 Avg. score: 3.70 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 19-18

Last 10 Matches Away:

Oct 28 2009 away Interblock 1-1 draw under
Oct 18 2009 away Drava 2-1 won over
Sep 26 2009 away Publikum Celje 2-2 draw over
Sep 19 2009 away Koper 1-3 lost over
Aug 28 2009 away Domzale 1-2 lost over
Aug 16 2009 away Olimpija Ljubljana 0-2 lost under
Aug 01 2009 away Maribor 1-3 lost over
Jul 19 2009 away Rudar Velenje 0-2 lost under
May 20 2009 away Koper 0-3 lost over
May 09 2009 away Gorica 1-2 lost over

Summary: 1-2-7 O-U: 7-3 Avg. score: 3.00 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 9-21

History:

Overall History

Sep 17 2005 Gorica - Nafta 2-0 homewin under
Mar 11 2006 Nafta - Gorica 2-4 awaywin over
Apr 15 2006 Gorica - Nafta 1-1 draw under
May 27 2006 Nafta - Gorica 1-4 awaywin over
Aug 06 2006 Gorica - Nafta 2-0 homewin under
Sep 27 2006 Nafta - Gorica 2-0 homewin under
Nov 25 2006 Gorica - Nafta 2-1 homewin over
Apr 21 2007 Nafta - Gorica 2-0 homewin under
Sep 01 2007 Gorica - Nafta 3-4 awaywin over
Oct 31 2007 Nafta - Gorica 1-1 draw under
Mar 29 2008 Gorica - Nafta 4-1 homewin over
May 17 2008 Nafta - Gorica 1-2 awaywin over
Aug 24 2008 Nafta - Gorica 1-0 homewin under
Oct 31 2008 Gorica - Nafta 3-1 homewin over
Mar 14 2009 Nafta - Gorica 1-4 awaywin over
May 09 2009 Gorica - Nafta 2-1 homewin over
Sep 12 2009 Nafta - Gorica 2-1 homewin over

Summary (overall): 10-2-5 O-U: 10-7 Avg. score: 3.35 Median score: 3.00

Summary (3 years): 7-1-3 O-U: 8-3 Avg. score: 3.45 Median score: 3.00

Trend: Gorica is 10-2-5

Trend 3 years: Gorica is 6-1-4

Home - Away History

Sep 17 2005 Gorica - Nafta 2-0 homewin under
Apr 15 2006 Gorica - Nafta 1-1 draw under
Aug 06 2006 Gorica - Nafta 2-0 homewin under
Nov 25 2006 Gorica - Nafta 2-1 homewin over
Sep 01 2007 Gorica - Nafta 3-4 awaywin over
Mar 29 2008 Gorica - Nafta 4-1 homewin over
Oct 31 2008 Gorica - Nafta 3-1 homewin over
May 09 2009 Gorica - Nafta 2-1 homewin over

Summary (overall): 6-1-1 O-U: 5-3 Avg. score: 3.50 Median score: 3.00

Summary (3 years): 4-0-1 O-U: 5-0 Avg. score: 4.40 Median score: 4.00

Trend: Gorica is 6-1-1

Trend 3 years: Gorica is 4-0-1