Index : Varde vs Hobro

Consensus:

Summary of current votes

› Users favouring homewin: 0     › Users favouring over 2.5: 0
› Users favouring awaywin: 0     › Users favouring under 2.5: 0
› Users favouring draw: 0

Cast your vote

Help us to generate the best consensus out there! Tell us what you think about this matchup!

Favouring result:
Homewin Awaywin Draw 		       Favouring over/under:
Over 2.5 Under 2.5
 

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Varde - Hobro (0 - 5):

2nd Division West (Denmark)
2009/2010

Vital Stats and Trends Summary:

› Trends favouring homewin (Varde) (Trends: 0 Stars: 0)
› Trends favouring awaywin (Hobro) (Trends: 5 Stars: 10)
› Trends favouring draw (Trends: 1 Stars: 1)
› Trends favouring over (Trends: 28 Stars: 54)
› Trends favouring under (Trends: 0 Stars: 0)

› Varde home: 2-0-2 8-8
› Varde form: 2-0-4 9-15
› Home form: 4-0-2 16-10

› Hobro away: 1-1-2 7-11
› Hobro form: 3-2-1 14-14
› Away form: 2-2-2 14-15

Team Status:

We compare a team's form to their natural cyclus over their last 30 games.

Overall

› Varde: Neutral
Form: 2-0-4 (6 points, 1.00 avg)
Last 30 matches: 11-4-15 (37 points, 1.23 avg)

› Hobro: Neutral
Form: 3-2-1 (11 points, 1.83 avg)
Last 30 matches: 13-8-9 (47 points, 1.57 avg)

Home/Away

› Varde: Neutral
Home form: 4-0-2 (12 points, 2.00 avg)
Last 15 homematches: 8-2-5 (26 points, 1.73 avg)

› Hobro: Neutral
Away form: 2-2-2 (8 points, 1.33 avg)
Last 15 awaymatches: 5-4-6 (19 points, 1.27 avg)

Table:

Home Away All
Matches Goals Matches Goals Matches Goals
AllWDLForAgaPts AllWDLForAgaPts AllWDLForAgaPts
1 Hjørring 4 3 1 0 9 2 10 4 3 0 1 10 4 9 8 6 1 1 19 6 19
2 Blokhus 4 3 1 0 12 5 10 4 2 0 2 6 4 6 8 5 1 2 18 9 16
3 OB Odense Am 4 3 0 1 8 6 9 4 2 0 2 11 7 6 8 5 0 3 19 13 15
4 Esbjerg Am 4 3 1 0 11 3 10 4 1 1 2 10 10 4 8 4 2 2 21 13 14
5 Aarhus Fremad Am 4 4 0 0 14 2 12 4 0 2 2 3 8 2 8 4 2 2 17 10 14
6 Randers Freja 4 3 1 0 8 3 10 4 1 1 2 7 10 4 8 4 2 2 15 13 14
7 AaB Aalborg Am 4 3 1 0 10 5 10 5 1 1 3 4 8 4 9 4 2 3 14 13 14
8 Hobro 4 3 1 0 9 5 10 4 1 1 2 7 11 4 8 4 2 2 16 16 14
9 Ikast 4 2 1 1 8 3 7 4 2 0 2 10 9 6 8 4 1 3 18 12 13
10 Svendborg 4 2 0 2 10 8 6 4 1 1 2 4 7 4 8 3 1 4 14 15 10
11 Holstebro 5 1 0 4 7 14 3 4 2 0 2 7 8 6 9 3 0 6 14 22 9
12 Naesby 4 2 0 2 7 8 6 4 1 0 3 6 13 3 8 3 0 5 13 21 9
13 AGF Aarhus Am 4 2 1 1 3 8 7 4 0 1 3 4 10 1 8 2 2 4 7 18 8
14 Varde 4 2 0 2 8 8 6 4 0 0 4 2 10 0 8 2 0 6 10 18 6
15 Tjørring 4 1 1 2 5 5 4 4 0 1 3 4 9 1 8 1 2 5 9 14 5
16 Otterup 4 1 1 2 9 13 4 4 0 1 3 3 10 1 8 1 2 5 12 23 5

Simulator:

The simulator uses vital stats, trends, history, systems, form and other data to give a strength factor between the teams. Value odds is indicated after the estimation.

› Homewin: 29% (value odds 3.42)

› Awaywin: 59% (value odds 1.69)

› Draw: 12% (value odds 8.61)

› Over: 88% (value odds 1.14)

› Under: 13% (value odds 8.00)

Expected Score:

› Varde: 2.15

› Hobro: 2.15

› Total: 4.29


› Over: 86%

› Under: 14%

Team Trends:

When a team has been into action we track how they have done in tens of different situations. If a trend emerge and the team is facing such a situation, we present it to you. The more significant the trend is, the more stars we add.

Trends favouring homewin (Varde) (Trends: 0 Stars: 0)

No trends favouring homewin.

Trends favouring awaywin (Hobro) (Trends: 5 Stars: 10)

› Varde playing against offensively good teams the current season. [lost 5/ 6] [83.33%] [3*]
› Varde playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. [lost 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Varde playing in weekend the current season. [lost 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Varde playing in October the last 3 seasons. [lost 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Hobro after scoring 2 or more in their last 2 matches the last 3 seasons. [won 6/ 9] [66.67%] [1*]

Trends favouring draw (Trends: 1 Stars: 1)

› Hobro playing in October the last 3 seasons. [draw 3/ 8] [37.50%] [1*]

Trends favouring over (Trends: 28 Stars: 54)

› Varde playing against offensively good teams the current season. [over 4/ 6] [66.67%] [1*]
› Varde playing against offensively good teams the last 3 seasons. [over 36/ 46] [78.26%] [2*]
› Varde playing against offensively good awayteams the last 3 seasons. [over 24/ 25] [96.00%] [4*]
› Varde playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. [over 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Varde playing against teams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. [over 48/ 68] [70.59%] [2*]
› Varde playing against awayteams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. [over 28/ 34] [82.35%] [3*]
› Varde playing in weekend the current season. [over 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Varde playing in October the last 3 seasons. [over 6/ 8] [75.00%] [2*]
› Varde playing in weekend the last 3 seasons. [over 40/ 59] [67.80%] [1*]
› Varde playing in weekend at home the last 3 seasons. [over 22/ 28] [78.57%] [2*]
› Varde playing against good teams the last 3 seasons. [over 26/ 32] [81.25%] [3*]
› Varde playing against average awayteams the last 3 seasons. [over 10/ 12] [83.33%] [3*]
› Varde playing against defensively poor teams the last 3 seasons. [over 30/ 47] [63.83%] [1*]
› Varde playing against defensively poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. [over 21/ 25] [84.00%] [3*]
› Hobro playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. [over 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]
› Hobro playing against teams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. [over 46/ 68] [67.65%] [1*]
› Hobro playing against hometeams with average elo rating the last 3 seasons. [over 25/ 34] [73.53%] [2*]
› Hobro playing in weekend the current season. [over 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]
› Hobro playing in October the last 3 seasons. [over 5/ 8] [62.50%] [1*]
› Hobro playing in weekend the last 3 seasons. [over 38/ 58] [65.52%] [1*]
› Hobro playing in weekend at away the last 3 seasons. [over 21/ 29] [72.41%] [2*]
› Hobro playing against poor teams the last 3 seasons. [over 19/ 27] [70.37%] [2*]
› Hobro playing against average hometeams the last 3 seasons. [over 5/ 7] [71.43%] [2*]
› Hobro playing against defensively poor teams the last 3 seasons. [over 33/ 47] [70.21%] [2*]
› Hobro playing against defensively poor hometeams the last 3 seasons. [over 16/ 21] [76.19%] [2*]
› Hobro playing against offensively average teams the last 3 seasons. [over 11/ 15] [73.33%] [2*]
› Hobro playing against offensively good hometeams the last 3 seasons. [over 18/ 22] [81.82%] [3*]
› Hobro after scoring 2 or more in their last 2 matches the last 3 seasons. [over 6/ 9] [66.67%] [1*]

Trends favouring under (Trends: 0 Stars: 0)

No trends favouring under.

ELO Ratings:

The rating was originally developed by Arpad Elo for rating chess players. The basic idea is that you should be rated by how you do versus the strength of your opponent. A poor team winning against a strong team will recieve a better rating than if the strong team won against a poor team. Each team start with 1500 in rating at the start of each season.

Varde
› ELO Rating 10 matches ago: 0.0
› ELO Rating 6 matches ago: 1444.6
› ELO Rating 3 matches ago: 1414.9

› Current ELO Rating: 1407.0

Hobro
› ELO Rating 10 matches ago: 0.0
› ELO Rating 6 matches ago: 1504.7
› ELO Rating 3 matches ago: 1482.9

› Current ELO Rating: 1517.1

ELO Trend
Match 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Varde 1480.8 1465.0 1444.6 1425.8 1433.4 1414.9 1424.1 1407.0
Hobro 1510.8 1494.7 1504.7 1503.1 1498.6 1482.9 1503.4 1517.1

Power Ratings:

A rating system based not only on results, but also how they are achieved. It is based on the ELO Rating system, but teams are also rewarded for scoring or conceeding goals.

Varde
› Power Rating 10 matches ago: 0.00
› Power Rating 6 matches ago: 9.92
› Power Rating 3 matches ago: 9.82

› Current Power Rating: 9.80

Hobro
› Power Rating 10 matches ago: 0.00
› Power Rating 6 matches ago: 10.03
› Power Rating 3 matches ago: 9.90

› Current Power Rating: 10.00

Power Rating Trend
Match 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Varde 9.97 9.95 9.92 9.87 9.90 9.82 9.85 9.80
Hobro 10.03 10.00 10.03 10.03 10.03 9.90 9.95 10.00

Systems:

Easy systems based on performances like winning matches and scoring goals. The systems have proven value with years of testing. Look for corresponding systems forecasting same results. Estimated results are shown.

› Point Ratio System: 0.50 (indicates awaywin)

› Game Form System: 2 (indicates draw)

› Weighted Form System: 0 (indicates draw)

› Goal Superiority System: -7 (indicates awaywin) (last 10)

› Goal Superiority System: -6 (indicates awaywin) (last 6)

› Scoring Ability System: -8 (indicates awaywin) (last 10)

› Scoring Ability System: -5 (indicates awaywin) (last 6)

› Percentage Win System: 50% (homewin) 13% (draw) 38% (awaywin)

› Defensor System: 0.17 (indicates draw)

Stats for hometeam (Varde):

Table: (games played, won-drawn-lost, scored-conceeded, points)
› Overall: 8 2-0-6 10-18 6
› At home: 4 2-0-2 8-8 6

Total Goal Score: (over, under)
› Overall: 6-2
› At home: 4-0

Scoring:
› Overall: scoring 1.25 goals per match
› At home: scoring 2.00 goals per match

Conceding:
› Overall: allowing 2.25 goals per match
› At home: allowing 2.00 goals per match

Form:
› Overall: LLWLWL 2-0-4
› Home: WWLLWW 4-0-2

ELO Rating: 1407.0

Last 10 Matches Overall:

Sep 26 2009 away AaB Aalborg Am 1-3 lost over
Sep 19 2009 home Tjørring 2-1 won over
Sep 12 2009 away Blokhus 1-4 lost over
Sep 05 2009 home Esbjerg Am 3-2 won over
Aug 29 2009 away OB Odense Am 0-2 lost under
Aug 22 2009 home Naesby 2-3 lost over
Aug 16 2009 away Svendborg 0-1 lost under
Aug 08 2009 home Hjørring 1-2 lost over
Jun 13 2009 away Aarhus Fremad 0-0 draw under
Jun 07 2009 home Ikast 4-0 won over

Summary: 3-1-6 O-U: 7-3 Avg. score: 3.20 Median score: 4.00 Goals: 14-18

Last 10 Matches At Home:

Sep 19 2009 home Tjørring 2-1 won over
Sep 05 2009 home Esbjerg Am 3-2 won over
Aug 22 2009 home Naesby 2-3 lost over
Aug 08 2009 home Hjørring 1-2 lost over
Jun 07 2009 home Ikast 4-0 won over
Jun 01 2009 home Svendborg 4-2 won over
May 23 2009 home AGF Aarhus Am 1-0 won under
May 09 2009 home Fyn 3-1 won over
Apr 25 2009 home OB Odense Am 2-3 lost over
Apr 13 2009 home Naesby 2-2 draw over

Summary: 6-1-3 O-U: 9-1 Avg. score: 4.00 Median score: 4.00 Goals: 24-16

Stats for awayteam (Hobro):

Table: (games played, won-drawn-lost, scored-conceeded, points)
› Overall: 8 4-2-2 16-16 14
› At away: 4 1-1-2 7-11 4

Total Goal Score: (over, under)
› Overall: 5-3
› At away: 3-1

Scoring:
› Overall: scoring 2.00 goals per match
› At away: scoring 1.75 goals per match

Conceding:
› Overall: allowing 2.00 goals per match
› At away: allowing 2.75 goals per match

Form:
› Overall: WDDLWW 3-2-1
› Away: DWLDLW 2-2-2

ELO Rating: 1517.1

Last 10 Matches Overall:

Sep 26 2009 home AGF Aarhus Am 5-3 won over
Sep 19 2009 away Otterup 4-2 won over
Sep 12 2009 away Aarhus Fremad Am 1-6 lost over
Sep 04 2009 home AaB Aalborg Am 1-1 draw under
Aug 29 2009 away Tjørring 1-1 draw under
Aug 21 2009 home Blokhus 2-1 won over
Aug 15 2009 away Esbjerg Am 1-2 lost over
Aug 08 2009 home OB Odense Am 1-0 won under
Jun 13 2009 away Brabrand 4-1 won over
Jun 07 2009 home Hjørring 2-2 draw over

Summary: 5-3-2 O-U: 7-3 Avg. score: 4.10 Median score: 4.00 Goals: 22-19

Last 10 Matches Away:

Sep 19 2009 away Otterup 4-2 won over
Sep 12 2009 away Aarhus Fremad Am 1-6 lost over
Aug 29 2009 away Tjørring 1-1 draw under
Aug 15 2009 away Esbjerg Am 1-2 lost over
Jun 13 2009 away Brabrand 4-1 won over
Jun 01 2009 away Aarhus Fremad 3-3 draw over
May 24 2009 away Svendborg 2-1 won over
May 01 2009 away AaB Aalborg Am 2-0 won under
Apr 18 2009 away Blokhus 1-0 won under
Apr 09 2009 away Skovbakken IK 2-2 draw over

Summary: 5-3-2 O-U: 7-3 Avg. score: 3.90 Median score: 3.00 Goals: 21-18

History:

Overall History

Oct 29 2005 Varde - Hobro 2-3 awaywin over
Apr 29 2006 Hobro - Varde 3-3 draw over
Sep 16 2006 Varde - Hobro 0-1 awaywin under
Apr 28 2007 Hobro - Varde 2-1 homewin over
Oct 06 2007 Varde - Hobro 1-3 awaywin over
May 31 2008 Hobro - Varde 1-2 awaywin over
Oct 18 2008 Varde - Hobro 4-2 homewin over
May 28 2009 Hobro - Varde 2-1 homewin over

Summary (overall): 3-1-4 O-U: 7-1 Avg. score: 3.88 Median score: 3.50

Summary (3 years): 3-0-2 O-U: 5-0 Avg. score: 3.80 Median score: 3.00

Trend: Hobro is 5-1-2

Trend 3 years: Hobro is 3-0-2

Home - Away History

Oct 29 2005 Varde - Hobro 2-3 awaywin over
Sep 16 2006 Varde - Hobro 0-1 awaywin under
Oct 06 2007 Varde - Hobro 1-3 awaywin over
Oct 18 2008 Varde - Hobro 4-2 homewin over

Summary (overall): 1-0-3 O-U: 3-1 Avg. score: 4.00 Median score: 4.50

Summary (3 years): 1-0-1 O-U: 2-0 Avg. score: 5.00 Median score: 5.00

Trend: Hobro is 3-0-1

Trend 3 years: Neither team is favoured based on history.