Back testing ELO ratings
The daily ELO ratings are available under the H2H column and features today's top plays based on the difference in points. I've gathered all matches with a elo difference of 400 and compiled a list with odds and the results from 2008.
The complete list of games:
Jan 01 16:00 Aldershot - Woking 1.70 2-1 WON (511+ difference)
Jan 01 16:00 Burton - Stafford Ran 1.45 2-1 WON (437+ difference)
Jan 05 16:00 Stafford Ran - Stevenage 1.69 1-2 WON (486+ difference)
Jan 13 19:00 Levante - Real Madrid 1.40 0-2 WON (417+ difference)
Jan 16 20:45 Gretna - Glasgow Rangers 1.30 1-2 WON (400+ difference)
Jan 19 16:00 Stevenage - Droylsden 1.30 5-0 WON (502+ difference)
Jan 19 16:00 Burton - Northwich 1.44 4-1 WON (460+ difference)
Jan 19 16:00 Wrexham - Milton Keynes 1.70 1-0 LOST (422+ difference) AWAY
Jan 22 20:45 Cambridge - Droylsden 1.41 5-0 WON (471+ difference)
Jan 26 16:00 Droylsden - Kidderminster 1.85 1-0 LOST (431+ difference) AWAY
Jan 30 20:45 Derby - Manchester City 1.95 1-1 LOST (407+ difference) AWAY
Feb 02 15:30 Wrexham - Darlington 2.15 2-0 LOST (424+ difference) AWAY
Feb 09 20:00 Bordeaux - Metz 1.45 3-0 WON (412+ difference)
Feb 12 20:45 Burton - Droylsden 1.37 3-0 WON (537+ difference)
Feb 16 16:00 Port Vale - Swansea 1.80 0-2 WON (523+ difference)
Feb 16 16:00 Berwick - Ross County 1.43 0-4 WON (478+ difference)
Feb 16 16:00 Forest Green - Stafford Ran 1.46 1-2 LOST (475+ difference)
Feb 16 16:00 Oxford - Droylsden 1.45 1-0 WON (425+ difference)
Feb 23 20:00 Lyon - Metz 1.39 2-0 WON (450+ difference)
Feb 23 13:45 Birmingham - Arsenal 1.63 2-2 LOST (405+ difference) AWAY
Feb 24 16:00 Glasgow Rangers - Gretna 1.14 4-2 WON (523+ difference)
Feb 24 19:00 Barcelona FC - Levante 1.15 5-1 WON (452+ difference)
Feb 24 18:00 Galatasaray - Kasimpasa SK 1.16 0-1 LOST (446+ difference)
Mar 01 16:00 Salisbury - Droylsden 1.36 3-1 WON (523+ difference)
Mar 01 16:00 Northwich - Ebbsfleet Un 2.20 3-3 LOST (456+ difference) AWAY
Mar 01 16:00 Exeter - Altrincham 1.50 2-1 WON (447+ difference)
Mar 01 16:00 Fulham - Manchester U 1.43 0-3 WON (404+ difference) AWAY
Mar 05 20:45 Airdrieonians - Berwick 1.29 3-0 WON (418+ difference)
Mar 07 20:45 Swansea - Millwall 1.53 1-2 LOST (417+ difference)
Mar 07 20:30 Standard Liege - Sint Truidense 1.67 2-1 WON (406+ difference)
Mar 08 16:00 Doncaster - Port Vale 1.41 2-1 WON (560+ difference)
Mar 08 16:00 Farsley - Cambridge 2.00 2-1 LOST (403+ difference)
Mar 11 20:45 Mansfield - Hereford 2.28 0-1 WON (423+ difference) AWAY
Mar 12 21:00 Chelsea - Derby 1.14 6-1 WON (579+ difference)
Mar 15 16:00 Derby - Manchester U 1.25 0-1 WON (618+ difference) AWAY
Mar 15 16:00 Port Vale - Leeds 1.97 3-3 LOST (495+ difference) AWAY
Mar 15 16:00 East Stirling - East Fife 1.42 0-3 WON (417+ difference) AWAY
Mar 15 16:00 Northwich - Crawley Town 2.38 2-0 LOST (409+ difference) AWAY
Mar 16 14:30 Fulham - Everton 2.55 1-0 LOST (401+ difference) AWAY
Mar 17 20:30 Gueugnon - Nantes 1.90 1-1 LOST (435+ difference) AWAY
Mar 18 20:30 Ravenna - Chievo Verona 1.90 1-1 LOST (469+ difference) AWAY
Mar 18 20:30 Albinoleffe - Avellino 1.53 3-3 LOST (407+ difference)
Mar 19 14:30 Vidima-Rakov - CSKA Sofia 1.16 0-0 LOST (416+ difference) AWAY
Mar 20 20:45 Grays - Droylsden 1.50 3-1 WON (498+ difference)
Mar 20 20:45 Tranmere - Port Vale 1.60 2-0 WON (454+ difference)
Mar 21 19:00 Fenerbahce - Kasimpasa SK 1.22 3-0 WON (463+ difference)
Mar 22 16:00 Stafford Ran - Torquay 1.73 0-2 WON (601+ difference) AWAY
Mar 22 16:00 Aldershot - Altrincham 1.40 2-1 WON (576+ difference)
Mar 22 17:15 Nancy - Metz 1.61 2-1 WON (452+ difference)
Mar 23 15:00 Gretna - Celtic Glasgow 1.20 0-3 WON (590+ difference) AWAY
Mar 23 17:00 Levante - Villarreal 1.85 1-2 WON (450+ difference) AWAY
Mar 24 16:00 Droylsden - Halifax 2.15 2-0 LOST (449+ difference) AWAY
Mar 27 20:45 Droylsden - Aldershot 1.45 2-2 LOST (761+ difference) AWAY
Mar 28 20:00 Polonia Bytom - Wisla Krakow 1.50 1-2 WON (400+ difference) AWAY
Mar 29 16:00 Stafford Ran - Aldershot 1.61 1-2 WON (732+ difference) AWAY
Mar 29 16:00 Altrincham - Torquay 2.00 1-1 LOST (514+ difference) AWAY
Mar 29 16:00 Rushden - Droylsden 1.50 0-0 LOST (497+ difference)
Mar 29 17:30 Zilina - Trencin 1.17 4-0 WON (487+ difference)
Mar 29 18:00 Rapid Wien - Tirol Innsbruck 1.33 4-1 WON (460+ difference)
Mar 29 16:00 Forfar - East Fife 2.30 2-3 WON (451+ difference) AWAY
Mar 29 16:00 Berwick - Peterhead 1.75 2-2 LOST (451+ difference) AWAY
Mar 29 14:00 FSV Frankfurt - Oggersheim FSV 1.35 2-0 WON (415+ difference)
Mar 29 16:00 Port Vale - Leyton Orient 2.63 2-1 LOST (403+ difference) AWAY
Mar 29 16:00 Bolton - Arsenal 1.83 2-3 WON (402+ difference) AWAY
Mar 30 14:00 Kasimpasa SK - Sivasspor 2.00 0-4 WON (431+ difference) AWAY
Mar 30 15:00 Salernitana - Martina 1.15 2-0 WON (412+ difference)
Apr 01 20:45 Droylsden - Torquay 1.55 1-2 WON (688+ difference) AWAY
Apr 01 20:45 Grays - Stafford Ran 1.55 5-1 WON (551+ difference)
Apr 01 19:45 Bellinzona - Cham SC 1.22 5-0 WON (480+ difference)
Apr 03 20:45 Exeter - Droylsden 1.30 1-1 LOST (729+ difference)
Apr 04 19:00 Oggersheim FSV - Unterhaching 1.50 1-2 WON (407+ difference) AWAY
Apr 05 16:00 Droylsden - Cambridge 1.70 0-2 WON (671+ difference) AWAY
Apr 05 16:00 Ross County - Berwick 1.24 4-0 WON (612+ difference)
Apr 05 16:00 Brighton - Port Vale 1.57 2-3 LOST (473+ difference)
Apr 05 16:00 East Fife - Dumbarton 1.56 2-1 WON (430+ difference)
Apr 05 16:00 Torquay - Farsley 1.46 0-1 LOST (414+ difference)
Apr 05 16:00 Lecce - Cesena 1.38 3-0 WON (409+ difference)
Apr 05 20:00 Twente Enschede - Excelsior 1.30 1-0 WON (406+ difference)
Apr 06 16:00 Everton - Derby 1.30 1-0 WON (586+ difference)
Apr 06 14:30 Middlesbrough - Manchester U 1.50 2-2 TAP (406+ difference) AWAY
Apr 08 20:45 Milton Keynes - Wrexham 1.40 4-1 WON (555+ difference)
Apr 08 20:45 Stafford Ran - York 2.10 0-4 WON (546+ difference) AWAY
Apr 08 20:45 Burton - Altrincham 1.65 2-1 WON (479+ difference)
Apr 08 20:45 Northwich - Forest Green 3.35 1-1 LOST (401+ difference) AWAY
Apr 09 20:45 Stockport - Mansfield 1.69 2-1 WON (471+ difference)
Apr 09 16:30 Livar Iv. Go - Nova Gorica 1.70 3-3 LOST (409+ difference) AWAY
Apr 11 20:00 Troyes - Gueugnon 1.36 2-2 LOST (434+ difference)
Apr 11 20:30 Rapid Wien - Pasching 1.30 2-1 WON (415+ difference)
Apr 12 16:00 Cambridge - Stafford Ran 1.33 1-2 LOST (706+ difference)
Apr 12 16:00 Derby - Aston Villa 1.66 0-6 WON (542+ difference) AWAY
Apr 12 16:00 Medimurje - Dinamo Zagreb 1.32 1-2 WON (532+ difference) AWAY
Apr 12 20:00 Metz - Marseille Ol. 1.80 1-2 WON (501+ difference) AWAY
Apr 12 16:00 Exeter - Northwich 1.73 2-1 WON (500+ difference)
Apr 12 17:00 Cham SC - Wohlen FC 1.65 2-4 WON (457+ difference) AWAY
Apr 12 19:00 Tatabánya FC - Ujpest Budapest 1.25 2-3 WON (456+ difference) AWAY
Apr 12 16:00 Dundee FC - Stirling Albion 1.27 3-0 WON (451+ difference)
Apr 12 16:00 Altrincham - Salisbury 2.95 3-1 LOST (433+ difference) AWAY
Apr 12 15:30 Kärnten FC - Kapfenberger SV 2.15 3-1 LOST (408+ difference) AWAY
Apr 13 10:30 Petrzalka - Trencin 1.14 1-0 WON (557+ difference)
Apr 13 16:30 Livar Iv. Go - Koper 1.45 1-2 WON (464+ difference) AWAY
Apr 14 21:00 Chelsea - Wigan 1.30 1-1 LOST (412+ difference)
Apr 15 20:45 Stafford Ran - Rushden 2.00 0-1 WON (551+ difference) AWAY
Apr 15 20:45 Torquay - Northwich 1.80 1-0 WON (538+ difference)
Apr 16 17:30 Jena - Mönchengladbach 2.26 2-2 LOST (402+ difference) AWAY
Apr 19 16:00 Histon - Droylsden 1.55 2-0 WON (653+ difference)
Apr 19 16:00 Stafford Rangers - Crawley Town 2.25 1-3 WON (608+ difference) AWAY
Apr 19 16:00 Berwick - Raith Rovers 1.60 2-5 WON (520+ difference) AWAY
Apr 19 16:00 West Ham - Derby 1.52 2-1 WON (450+ difference)
Apr 19 13:45 Arsenal - Reading 1.33 2-0 WON (437+ difference)
Apr 19 16:00 Fulham - Liverpool 2.40 0-2 WON (420+ difference) AWAY
Apr 19 16:00 Northwich - Grays 4.10 1-0 LOST (418+ difference) AWAY
Apr 19 16:00 Halifax - Aldershot 3.00 0-0 LOST (409+ difference) AWAY
Apr 19 18:00 Roma AS - Livorno 1.25 1-1 LOST (407+ difference)
Apr 19 16:00 Ebbsfleet Un - Altrincham 2.30 2-0 WON (406+ difference)
Apr 20 15:00 Vejle BK - Olstykke 1.15 5-1 WON (471+ difference)
Apr 20 20:15 Leiria - Sporting Lisbon 1.41 4-1 LOST (445+ difference) AWAY
Apr 20 14:30 Heerenveen - Excelsior 1.36 5-0 WON (442+ difference)
Apr 20 15:00 Martina - Gallipoli 1.65 2-0 LOST (424+ difference) AWAY
Apr 22 20:45 Exeter - Stafford Ran 1.25 4-1 WON (809+ difference)
Apr 22 20:45 Hereford - Wrexham 1.63 2-0 WON (511+ difference)
Apr 22 20:45 Stevenage - Northwich 1.89 1-2 LOST (495+ difference)
Apr 22 20:45 Aldershot - Weymouth 1.75 0-0 LOST (469+ difference)
Apr 22 20:45 Droylsden - Woking 2.42 1-1 LOST (459+ difference) AWAY
Apr 23 20:45 Stirling Albion - St. Johnstone 2.02 3-1 LOST (415+ difference) AWAY
The results:
To many this is the most boring work ever but for the rest of us, this is like trying to find a gold mine and see some rocks sparkling in the horizon. I love it so I've done the work for you. First I've looked at all the matches on the list and seen if we could make a profit:
Results with all matches:
Total: 124 matches
Won: 81 matches (65%)
Lost: 43 matches (35%)
Profit: -2.18 units (98.24% payback)
Clearly not something we would bet on long term to make a profit. However, I noticed the compiling the list that away matches were clearly a bad sign. How about we just remove all matches when we wanted to bet on the away team?
Results with only home teams:
Total: 69 matches
Won: 54 matches (78%)
Lost: 15 matches (22%)
Profit: +8.19 units (111.87%)
Suddenly we have some excellent profits right into our hands with little or no work. The win% is an amazing 78% and the payback is close to 112%. This means that if you staked as little as $100 on each game you would have made $819 in profits over these 4 months and it would have taken you 10 seconds a day looking for the number. Lets take it a bit further:
Results with only +500 home teams:
Total: 18 matches
Won: 16 matches (89%)
Lost: 2 matches (11%)
Profit: +5.41 units (130.06%)
Like to impress your friends once in a while? Recommend matches that are +500 and home teams as 89% of them were winners. Clearly a highly impressive number. There aren't to many of those around with only 18 matches in total, but the payback is excellent with 130.06%.
I could do this all day but the next face would be to eliminate matches with low odds and see if they made us more profit. Go ahead and see if you can work it out!
